A Strategic Analysis for Retail Leaders: Based on the “2026 Retail Industry Global Outlook” by Deloitte Insights
Here’s something counterintuitive: 96% of retail executives expect revenue growth in 2026, even as economic storm clouds gather on the horizon. According to Deloitte’s survey of 330 global retail leaders, this optimism isn’t naive, it’s strategic. However there’s a catch. The playbook that got retailers through the last decade won’t work anymore.
The industry is facing what Deloitte calls a “watershed moment.” Customer centricity? Still important. Financial discipline? Non-negotiable. But these traditional strengths are table stakes now. What separates winners from casualties in 2026 will be something harder to master: radical adaptability in an AI dominated marketplace where consumers have fundamentally changed what “value” means to them.
Let’s break down what’s actually happening and what retail leaders need to do about it.
The Death of “Cheap” (And the Birth of Complicated Value)
First, let’s talk about the consumer side of the equation. If you think the value-seeking behavior we’ve seen is just inflation fatigue that’ll fade, you’re in for a rude awakening. Seventy percent of executives agree that behaviours like trading down and swapping convenience for savings aren’t temporary, they’re structural shifts that are here to stay.
Here’s the nuance that matters: when 40% of Americans now demonstrate deal-driven shopping habits, they’re not just hunting for the lowest price. Value in 2026 is a complex calculation involving price, quality, experience, and trust. This is simultaneously obvious and easy to get catastrophically wrong.
The mistake? Thinking this is a race to the bottom. Yes, 70% of retailers plan to expand value-priced assortments, but competing purely on price is a express lane to margin erosion. The research shows that 40% of a brand’s perceived value comes from non-price factors. That’s your opportunity.
The smart play is re-engineering your entire value ecosystem. This means doubling down on private-label expansion (which executives cite as the second-highest growth opportunity) and completely reimagining loyalty programs. Use your data to create personalized value propositions where consumers feel the experience justifies the cost. If your brand can’t articulate value beyond the price tag, you’re already obsolete.
When AI Starts Doing the Shopping (And Why You Should Be Worried)
Now we get to the big one: Agentic AI. This isn’t about chatbots anymore. We’re talking about autonomous AI agents that can browse, negotiate, and purchase on behalf of humans. 68% of executives expect to deploy these agents within 12 to 24 months. Half predict the entire shopping journey will collapse into a single AI-driven interaction by 2027.
Let that sink in for a moment.
If you’re a brand executive, this should terrify you. When 81% of your peers believe generative AI will weaken brand loyalty by prioritizing “fit” and “value” over “brand recognition,” the traditional marketing funnel isn’t just broken, it’s irrelevant.
Think about it: when an AI agent controls product discovery, your brand’s visibility depends entirely on how well machines can read and interpret your data. Human shoppers might forgive messy product descriptions or inconsistent specs. AI agents won’t. They’ll simply move on to your better optimized competitor.
The strategic imperative is crystal clear: prioritize what we might call “AI hygiene.” Your product data, pricing structures, and inventory specifications need to be meticulously structured for machine reading. The battleground has shifted from convincing humans to convincing algorithms. Get your data house in order now, or become invisible.
The Marketing Revolution (And Its Hidden Costs)
Here’s where things get interesting on the operational side. Driven by confidence in AI tools, 94% of retailers plan to bring more marketing activities in-house. Generative AI makes creative automation and hyper personalization feasible at scale, so why pay agencies for what you can do internally?
At the same time, Retail Media Networks are exploding. 88% of executives view them as crucial for profitability, with nearly 80% planning to sell ad space to non endemic brands, think insurance companies or travel agencies advertising on grocery store apps.
But there’s a catch to both trends. In-housing marketing might cut agency costs (75% plan to reduce agency reliance), but it places enormous demands on internal teams to master complex data stacks and AI tools. Not every organization has that talent bench.
As for Retail Media Networks, the math gets suspicious. When 83% of trade promotion budgets shift into RMNs, you’re essentially subsidizing retail margins by becoming a media publisher. That’s fine until every retailer launches a media network and the ad dollars get spread too thin. Only retailers with superior first-party data and attribution models will actually make money here. The critical question every CXO needs to ask: Is our RMN delivering real incremental value to advertisers, or are we just renting digital real estate in an increasingly crowded market?
Supply Chains and the New Geopolitical Reality
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: global trade is increasingly unreliable. 95% of executives anticipate rising costs due to trade policies and tariffs. The era of lean, just-in-time supply chains is giving way to just-in-case resilience.
The response? 66% plan to restructure through on-shoring, near-shoring, and supplier diversification. AI adoption for supply chain visibility is expected to jump from 30% to 41% within a year.
Economic headwinds are real. US tariffs are likely to boost inflation and reduce purchasing power. China’s property market troubles are dampening consumer confidence globally. In this environment, supply chain “tech debt” cited by 44% of respondents as slowing innovation, isn’t just inefficient. It’s dangerous.
The move to nearshoring isn’t merely about logistics. It’s a financial hedge against geopolitical volatility. Smart CXOs are already viewing supply chain redundancy not as a cost center but as essential insurance in a fragmenting global economy.
The Margin Tightrope
Now for the trillion-dollar question: how do retailers fund massive investments in AI and supply chain transformation while facing rising input costs—and still grow margins?
82% forecast margin increases through what Deloitte calls “financial fortitude.” The tactics are straightforward but require precision: raising thresholds for free shipping (67%), shifting product mix toward higher margin items (72%), and implementing gradual price increases (73%). Critically, 82% expect to ruthlessly reallocate capital from underperforming areas to profitable ventures.
Here’s the tension: this entire margin strategy relies on dynamic pricing and data-led promotions. But aggressive price optimization can erode consumer trust, the very thing you need to win over value seeking shoppers.
There’s a potential contradiction between “gradual price increases” and consumer demands for value. Winners will use AI to identify with surgical precision exactly where they can raise prices without triggering customer defection, and where they must hold the line to maintain loyalty. It’s price elasticity modeling at scale, and getting it wrong means watching customers walk.
The Bottom Line
75% of executives say they’re focused on what they can control rather than worrying about macro factors. That’s the right instinct, but execution separates survivors from thrivers.
The mandate for 2026 comes down to four imperatives:
Industrialize AI beyond pilots. Integrate agentic AI into your core operations before the shopping funnel collapses entirely.
Monetize media strategically. Use Retail Media Networks not just for revenue, but to build the first-party data moats you’ll need in a cookie-less world.
Fortify supply chains proactively. Invest in AI visibility and nearshoring now to insulate operations from trade chaos.
Redefine value holistically. Don’t just compete on price. Build value propositions based on quality, trust, and personalized experiences that even AI agents can recognize and recommend.
The winners in 2026 won’t be the biggest retailers. They’ll be the most agile ones, those who treat adaptability not as crisis management, but as a core strategic capability.
